Property market 2011 – Fresh Views
Where does UK property and interest rates go from here? Economy shrinking, Inflation rising and rental values apparently falling…
Let’s start off here. If an economy is contracting this typically means that unemployment is rising, the reason for this is that, the size of an economy is measured on GDP (Gross Domestic Product) this is the total amount in pounds of everything circulating through the economy in a given year.
The formula for GDP is C + I + G + (X-M) = GDP
Where C = Consumer expenditure, I = Investment, G = Government expenditure and X – M = exports minus imports i.e. the total value added to products in this country.
If people are spending less, people are making less profit. If inflation is present it should be easier for GDP to increase as prices are rising, but the figure given as -0.5% is “real terms GDP” this is the total increase having taken into account inflation. Now, inflation can do two things it can lead to further spending or it can stop spending and send an economy into negative growth (much like it, seemingly has here) the reason it can do two things are:
1. Inflation can lead on to further inflation as people decide to purchase goods early before prices rise further. Resulting in further rises.
2. Inflation can lead to negative growth as people begin to slow their spending habits as prices hit certain levels i.e. a £9.99 CD becoming a £10.19 CD, the psychological effect of this small rise can damage sales, but the shop has no choice but to raise prices as prices of other goods and services are rising.
However I don’t feel that the negative growth can be solely attributed to increasing prices etc. What must be taken into account is the good old weather of the UK! Because of the poor weather conditions we suffered in December much of the country was unable to get to work and even unable to go out and spend.
But there are two significant ways for a government to battle inflation at the scary 3.7% it currently is and that is… raise VAT, or raise interest rates.
VAT has been raised from the beginning of 2011 and I feel we are yet to see the full effect of this in the figure of 3.7% inflation which was given at the beginning of the year. But now there are lots of rumours of an interest rate hike on the back of this as well, which should of course slow down inflation, but could quite easily send us back into negative growth and further stagflation where growth is stagnant and inflation is still present.
Now if interest rates were to rise I feel there will be lots of unhappy landlords on Tracker Mortgages, especially when rental values are apparently falling (this is taken from a generalised figure, which we try not to rely on too much in this industry) but this will normally mean less in the landlords pocket and in some cases, more out of their pocket!
Further to this we have the savers. Savers have had a particularly hard time throughout the recession, low interest rates and constant inflation means that at no point have they really been “better off” apart from possibly sheltering from losses in certain markets.
We still firmly believe that purchasing property through us on one of our developments is your best way to 1. Build up a portfolio for your retirement or 2. Make a “hands-off” profit, for years to come… or 3. Both!
We have some excellent investment opportunities at the moment; both UK Property and Overseas Property please contact us for more details. In times like these it really pays to think Fresh 
Capital Gains Tax Increase – Fresh views
With news that the new Con/Lib coalition are to raise the tax due on Capital Gains for anyone selling a second property Fresh Invest shares it’s views on how this may affect the property investment market.
Firstly let’s decide why the government has decided to impose this new tax there are 2 main reasons:
- The previous government has run up an astronomical budget deficit – hence the note recently left by the outgoing treasury minister Liam Byrne, to the new chief secretary David Laws which stated “Dear chief secretary, I’m afraid there is no money. Kind regards and good luck! Liam.” For this reason it is imperative that the new government make a lot of cuts, to bring the level of this deficit to an acceptable level they need to recoup money from the tax payers and this new capital gains tax will do just that.
- The second reason is that because of the slack lending criteria over the past decade many people have bought up a large amount of property in small holiday towns throughout the south of England, through this they artificially increased the prices of all the houses around these areas and they are now financially out of reach of the average worker in those towns.
The government is therefore going to impose an increased Capital Gains Tax on all second home sales as a way of raising cash for themselves and a way of stopping people becoming too greedy and putting house prices out of reach for first time buyers in holiday locations throughout the UK.
Now what could happen as a result of an increase in Capital Gains Tax?
The big sell off – This first scenario would really depend on when the government decides to impose this new tax, if they decided to impose the tax from the new tax year i.e. 6th of April 2011 then I would suspect a big sell off of second homes in desirable locations, creating a very large influx of supply into the property market and without the demand to match, probable falls in prices.
The buy and hold – The other scenario, I believe would also depend on the time the new tax is imposed. I would suspect that if it was to be imposed straight away then second home owners and investors alike may decide not to sell their properties as the gains are no longer high enough. Hopefully this will not cause any form of stagnation in the already fragile property market.
One thing is for sure. This will slow down the purchasing of property just for the capital gains that come with it, as the risks may begin to outweigh the possible rewards .An advantage of this however will mean that investors do not inflate property prices further and therefore eliminate first-time buyers from the market. Hopefully this will lead to longer, sustained growth.
Maybe it’s time to look to the overseas property market for your significant capital growth?
What are your views?
Fresh Invest is a property investment company with the aim of maximising our investor’s funds whilst minimising their risk. For more information see www.freshinvest.co.uk or phone 0800 043 69 56.
As lending relaxes property investment increases!
It’s what most of us have been waiting for, the small time frame between lenders relaxing their criteria and property prices increasing.
We all knew that lenders were going to need to increase their loan to value rates, and that when they did it would make a massive difference to the property investment market.
Over the past few months half decent rates had been reserved for investors with 40% deposits. Now i do not condone most no money down deals, i think they lead to more problems than they alleviate.
However! the case for the investor with a healthy 20% deposit should be heard, they have a large amount of equity in their property and should now be relatively safe from negative equity.
It seems the lenders now agree.
What are the new rates like?
Since the BOE base rate reached 0.5% products requiring a 15% deposit have risen from 169 to 231. And the number of products requiring just 10% upfront has gone up from 89 to 105 in the last month alone.
This is certainly a massive difference to a year or even 6 months ago.
Nationwide has already announced a new influx of deals, including some at 85% loan to value and they have also released some of their best rates at 70% ltv, from their previous at 60%.
They have even released a special 90% ltv rate for investors that hold one of their flexaccounts. These start at 4.63% for a 2 year tracker.
The Woolwich have also released details of their new 75% ltv rates, this is the first time the lender has made it to 75% for at least a year. The new mortgages include a lifetime tracker on 2.94% and 2 year fixed on 3.99%.
Abbey also have a new range out, these are exclusively for their current account customers. One of their best is a 90% ltv 3 year fixed rate at 5.99%, their cheapest mortgages are now available at 70% from 60%.
So why the sudden change?
It seems that lenders now believe that the worst is behind us, in short if they are offering 90% ltv mortgage they believe that property prices will not drop more than 10%, in fact they believe that prices will increase in the future, as now being reported in most news channels.
Just last month hsbc pledged to lend an extra £500m at 90% ltv by the end of this year!
Add this to the political pressure being put on lenders by the government, this was summed up by the governments own lending house northern rock as they released some of the best ltv rates seen for over a year!
So should i buy now?
If you are looking at getitng into property investment there has never been a better time to invest, there are still seller under pressure but now there is also the promise of some competitive rates. This means that not only can you buy cheap, you can also borrow cheaply!
We don’t expect this to remain the case for long so why not add or start your portfolio with some discounted property now!
Also check out our UK Buying Guide for handy hints and tips.
With stability grows confidence!
Shopping at the weekend I was amazed at how busy all the shops were, now I know it’s christmas and all that but perhaps this could be the final piece of the puzzle that will lead to us climbing out of recession.
It does seem for the first time in months that the public are not as worried as they were about the economy.
According to the times, people are more optimistic about the economy than at any time over the last 18 months.
What are the reasons for this?
- We have just had the highest october high street sales for 7 years.
- The pound rose to it’s highest level against the dollar.
- The ftse closed up 92.5 points, at a two week high.
- Alistair Darling is looking at cutting business taxes to encourage people to have faith in labour.
What do people think about these facts?
Is this a result of the “quantitive easing” which we (the public) are going to be penalised for after the elections?
or
Is this the start of Britain pulling itself out of recession?
Could the points above be the catalyst that leads to us out of our economic quagmire?
What does this mean for the property investment market?
In my opinion it means that the worst is now firmly behind us, the increased confidence on the high street coupled with the low supply of new build property coming on the market means robust values.
Investors can now take advantage of a unique position in the property investment market. There are still a small amount of reposessed property and good discounted new build units available which if bought now are sure to increase in value over the next year.
Investors purchasing these can then re-mortgage on much better loan to value rates.
The property investment market is ripe at the moment, will investors choose to invest or wait until the moment has passed and lament on a missed opportunity?
As always, we will probably see both.
If you want details of some of our UK Buy to Let Opportunities at the moment please let us know, they are selling fast!
I predict it in september, the halifax and sky news predicts it in october!
Looks like my predictions were true, as the halifax reported on october 6th – article.
If you remember i wrote an article last month predicting that with most developers only just starting to build again there will be a massive drop in supply of property.
The Halifax states “a combination of increased demand and a shortage of properties on the market had pushed prices up in recent months”.
Now i think we all know that this increase is definitely due to ease, its supported by a lack in supply but against that you need to show an increase in unemployment and a definite lack of competitive mortgage products.
My further prediciton is that we will see a mini blip in prices followed by a mini crash then probably stability for the future.
A property chain reaction
Anyone remember the speculation that was around only a couple of months ago with regards to the property price increases? “Yes they are increasing, but there are no new homes coming on to the market which means it cannot be sustainable”.
Well the average estate agent had 64 properties on their books during the traditionally slow month of August, up from 59 in July and the first rise since April, said the National Association of Estate Agents.
Well of course they did. Those people that were looking during the first quarter of this year were also very likely to have homes of their own, ready to go up for sale once they had tested the buyer’s market.
Now I know what you’re going to say… “Yes but these are second, even third-time buyers. We need first-time buyers back in the market before we can see a prolonged recovery.” Ok how about this “The number of first-time buyers who were actively looking in the market also rose during August, with this group accounting for 36% of all agreed sales, up from 22% in July.” With the availability of credit easing with more and more mortgage products coming onto the market, there are definitely a lot more opportunities for first-time buyers to jump on that first rung of the ladder.
Then of course we have the property Investors who have been coming back to the market recently, giving further uplift in demand. Obviously investors have been seeing hard times but investing in this climate can be highly lucrative you just need to research your investment opportunities properly (or let us do itJ). One market which has actually benefited from the recession is the Student buy to let market, with uni applications rising dramatically throughout the recession. For more information on the student property market please click here.
However if you are not looking for investment opportunities in the UK then you need to be looking towards emerging markets such as the Cape Verde islands or Brazil. Or if you’re not looking for property in particular then you should be looking towards carbon offsets (set to be one of the biggest commodity markets in the world) or If you would like to be more defensive take a look at our farm and forestry funds or vineyard opportunity with guaranteed returns.
Things are definitely starting to look up!
Balance your portfolio with alternative investments!
Here at Fresh Invest we have been working hard, attempting to provide our investors with the means to build and prosper from a balanced portfolio.
Why is it so important to build a balanced portfolio?
A balanced portfolio will perform well in every market. You need to prepare yourself for every eventuality, for example. If there is another fall in house prices, people are likely to look elsewhere for places to hedge their savings or pensions and hopefully provide them with an income. This will therefore push prices up in the relative sectors, as demand increases people will look to charge more of a premium.
As markets become more volatile than ever, you should be looking to put your hard earned savings and pensions into a range of products where the value is governed by an increasing demand and a decreasing supply, during varying economic climates.
How about UK farmland? Well let’s get one thing straight we cannot create more land, neither can we build upwards, agriculturally. UK Farmland has been growing in value by 15% pa over the past 3 years where other investments have been decreasing in value.
We always need land
Another point is that if the UK housing market was to recover there will be uplift in demand for farmland yet again as housing developers start to look for land to build on. Putting further pressure on price rises as resources are diminished. Now if this happened and you were lucky enough to purchase in an area where planning gain is possible for further housing, this could greatly increase the value of your land!
Not only can alternative investments provide safe returns in uncertain economic times, many of them can provide great taxation benefits such as capital gains and inheritance tax relief.
There is a vast array of alternative investments on the market at the moment and without specialist advice you may not end up with a balanced portfolio at all.
So speak to the experts www.freshinvest.co.uk
